Monday, July 28, 2008

Presidential Candidate Ahead in the Gallup Poll 100 Days From Election Usually Wins

The candidate ahead in the Gallup poll 100 days from the Fall election usually wins. That means that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. This report comes from CNN's pollster Bill Schneider:

Right now, the presidential election is 100 days away, and as we saw only a moment or so ago, our new Poll of Polls shows Obama now nine points ahead of Senator McCain.

Let's bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He's watching this story for us. I'm not sure our Poll of Polls does show nine points ahead. I think that was the Gallup poll that showed a nine-point tracking poll. Our Poll of Polls is a little closer, about six points, is that right, Bill?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: The Poll of Polls is six points, and the latest Gallup tracking poll which just came out about an hour ago shows an eight-point lead for Obama.

Well your question, what does it mean, 100 days out? As the one- time Democratic nominee, Al Smith, used to say, let's look at the record.


SCHNEIDER (voice over): They say a week is a long time in politics. A hundred days looks like forever. Everything could change. Or could it?

Let's see how accurate the polls were 100 days before the election for the last 50 years.

In three out of 12 elections, the 100-day-out Gallup polls were just about right. 1968, the midsummer poll predicted a close one: Republican Richard Nixon over Democrat Hubert Humphrey by two. Nixon won by one.

1972, the poll predicted a 26-point Nixon landslide. It was nearly that. Nixon beat Democrat George McGovern by 23.

2004, the polls showed a dead heat between George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry. The election was close. Bush by three.

Six times the Gallup poll got the winner right, but the margin was too big. In 1976, for instance, 100 days before the election, the Gallup poll showed Democrat Jimmy Carter leading Republican Gerald Ford by 22. Carter did win, by two.

Only once did the 100-day poll understate the winner's margin. That was in 1984. The midsummer poll showed Reagan getting reelected by 12. He did get reelected, by 18.

Have the 100-day polls ever gotten it wrong? Yes, twice.

In 1960, Nixon led Democrat John Kennedy by six in midsummer. Kennedy ended up winning by less than a point.

In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of George Bush in late July. The most famous blown lead in history.

Usually, however, the 100-day poll gets the winner right, but more often than not, the race gets closer. So where are we now? Barack Obama leads John McCain by eight points in the Gallup poll.

It looks like this one could be close.


SCHNEIDER: Why is this race different from all other races? In every one of the last dozen presidential elections, either the president was running for re-election, or the vice president was running to succeed him. Imagine what would be happening if either George W. Bush or Dick Cheney were running this time. But, they're not -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Which makes for some fascinating potential.

Video: Legalized Loan Sharking - Payday Loans

First there was the subprime ripoff. Now those who haven't been finished off by the mortgage collapse and taking out payday loans. In both cases working people are being ripped-off by what are essentially modern day loan sharks. All with the blessing of the government.

Federal Budget Deficit for Fiscal 2009 Projected to Be $490 Billion

Another ignominious Bush record:

The White House is expected to report a projection for a $490 billion budget deficit for the budget year ending in September 2009, a number that would be the highest number recorded.

Senior administration officials confirmed the number to FOX News on Monday, but downplayed the impact of the number. The official said that as a percentage of the U.S. gross domestic product, the deficit projection would be roughly 3 percent to 4 percent.

Another senior administration official said "a lot can happen" in 18 months that could worsen or improve the outlook, such as an improved economy leading to better tax returns, or increased spending under a new administration. The official specifically warned about the impact a Democrats.

"Democrats could blow the doors off spending and drive the deficit even higher," the official said.

McCain on ABC's This Week: Transcript (7-27-08)

Read the entire transcript:

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: Senator Obama was in London this morning, and he was responding to your comments from yesterday when you said that 16 months might be a pretty good timetable in Iraq.

He said, "We're pleased to see that there's been some convergence around proposals we've been making for a year-and-a-half."

SEN JOHN MCCAIN: That's really good. Look, it's not a timetable, as I said. I was asked, how does that sound? Anything sounds good to me, but...

STEPHANOPOULOS: But you never used the word before.

MCCAIN: ... you know, the point is...

STEPHANOPOULOS: You made a point of never using...

MCCAIN: ... I never...

STEPHANOPOULOS: ... the word before.

MCCAIN: Look, I have always said, and I said then, it's the conditions on the ground. If Senator Obama had had his way, we'd have been out last March, and we'd been out in defeat and chaos, and probably had to come back again because of Iranian influence.

It's conditions on the ground -- the way that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, the way that General Petraeus has said -- conditions on the ground, so that the Iraqi government can have control, can have the sufficient security, so that we don't have to come back. Senator Obama said that if his date didn't work, we may have to come back.

We're not coming home in victory. We're coming home in victory.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But it does seem...

MCCAIN: But it is a -- it is not a date. I want to make it very clear to you, it is not a date. It's conditions on the ground.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So, you shouldn't have used the word timetable.

MCCAIN: Pardon me?

STEPHANOPOULOS: You shouldn't have used the word timetable.

MCCAIN: I didn't use the word timetable. That I did -- if I did...