Superdelegates will Support Obama

The superdelegates will support the frontrunner:

If the Intermission sounds like a nightmare scenario for Democrats, that's because it is. "This is something the Democrats would want to avoid pretty significantly," says election scholar Rhodes Cook. "The longer this goes on, the more bitterness, the more party turmoil, the more infighting there is." Superdelegates can't stomach the thought of hurting the party's chances next November; they are, after all, the faithfullest of the party faithful. But barring huge Obama landslides in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, they're probably going to have to break the tie and pick the nominee at some point--and for the party, sooner is better than later. (See above.) Which is why, for the first time since Jan. 4--the morning after his Iowa upset--Obama now looks like the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

Here's how I see it. Last night, Obama didn't just crush Clinton in Virginia (64-35), Maryland (60-37) and Washington, D.C. (75-24). He made a convincing argument for his strength against McCain in the general election. First off, he took three primaries and even captured the white vote in Virginia, rebutting two key Clinton charges--that he wins only when competing in activist-friendly caucuses or inside his comfort zone (blacks and young voters as opposed to southern whites). What's more, the Illinois senator trounced Clinton 69-30 among the 22 percent of Democratic primary voters who said they were independents, and widened the gap--72-23--among the seven percent who self-identified as Republicans. All told, Obama's vote total last night exceeded all Republicans combined by more than 100,000. As Jonathan Martin writes, "Obama has a real chance to break the GOP's 44-year hold on Virginia this fall."

[...]"If Obama comes out having only lost one state between Super Tuesday and March 11, it would be tough to argue that he hasn't clearly established an edge," says Cook. "That pause would be the first opportunity for all of these players who are pressuring for a decision to weigh in, and that might be enough to tip it." In other words, it may be that the Democratic party spends this first "Intermission" making sure the second one never happens.

She is now slipping among her core group. This is the beginning of the end:

Hillary Rodham Clinton's crushing losses in Maryland and Virginia highlight an erosion in what had been solid advantages among women, whites and older and working-class voters. While this week's results can be explained by those states' relatively large numbers of blacks and well-educated residents - who tend to be Barack Obama supporters - her presidential campaign could be doomed if the trends continue.

Clinton is holding onto some of her supporters who are largely defined by race and often by level of education, such as low-income white workers and older white women, exit polls of voters show. She's been losing other blocs, again stamped by personal characteristics, such as blacks, men and young people both black and white, and better-educated whites.

The latest defeats have slowed the one-time favorite's political momentum at a bad time. With Obama winning eight straight contests and easily outdistancing her in money raising, she must now endure three weeks until primaries in Texas and Ohio that she hopes will resurrect her campaign.

[...]Before Tuesday's voting, the two were even among white males this year. Obama defeated her among that group by 18 percentage points in Virginia - his first win with white men in a Southern state - and they divided white men about equally in Maryland. Obama has done especially well with men who are college educated.

Tuesday's voting highlighted the ground Clinton has lost with groups that have been strongholds of her support.

Hillary ought to listen to some advice, other than the sycophants whom surround her. This comes from "professionals":

1. It's The Economy, Stupid: Clinton began the race with a clear advantage over Obama among voters who cited the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country. That edge narrowed and then disappeared altogether as the contest stretched on. Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster, suggested that Clinton should revive a message similar to her husband's "It's the economy, stupid" mantra that defined the 1992 presidential race. "She should issue an economic 'white paper'," said Yang.

[...]2. Make News: In the wake of Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign appears to have fallen into a "play it safe" mode that no longer fits the sort of campaign she must run to beat Obama. "She needs to start making news, by having interesting things to say,"[...]

[...]3. Internet Cash = Loyal Supporters: Many within the broad orbit of the Clinton campaign don't think enough has been made of the fact that more than $12 million has been raised online since Super Tuesday. The money story has been almost unremittingly bad for Clinton in the past week -- Obama raised $32 million in January alone, Clinton was forced to loan her campaign $5 million before the Feb. 5 votes. But this storyline, according to party strategists, is one that has potential to show that there are a good many people in the country who believe strongly in Clinton and are willing to show it by giving small-dollar contributions to her cause.


[...]4. Over-perform in Wisconsin: The Badger State primary is set for Feb. 19 and represents the last, best chance for Clinton to win (or at least lose by less than expected) before March 4. While there is a considerable progressive base in Wisconsin -- in Madison in particular -- there are a lot of blue collar, lower middle class white voters who could be responsive to a Clinton message heavy on the economy. Losing by a large margin in Wisconsin -- coupled with an expected big Obama win in his home state of Hawaii -- could be the beginning of the end for Clinton.