Clintonista, James Carville, was forced to admit that if Hillary Clinton doesn't win Tuesday she is toast (read the entire transcript here):
MR. SHRUM: Do you agree with me that if Obama carries one state, it's effectively over?
MR. CARVILLE: It is very, very, very difficult. And I've--and, and I said that earlier; President Clinton has said it. It becomes exceedingly difficult if she, if she loses either Ohio or Texas. That's, that's evident. You got to...
MR. RUSSERT: It's over.
MR. CARVILLE: It's very, very, very difficult.
MR. RUSSERT: Oh, you're...
MR. CARVILLE: No.
MR. RUSSERT: Two weeks ago, you said it was over.
MR. CARVILLE: It--I don't know what the difference is. It sounds good to me.
MR. MURPHY: It's one sentence he'd like to have back.
MR. CARVILLE: It's--I don't have this reject...
MR. RUSSERT: I think he got a phone call this morning, "Don't say it's over." Right?
MR. CARVILLE: No, I--in, in effect, I, I agree with President Clinton.
MR. MURPHY: There you go.
MR. CARVILLE: And I--I'll leave it at that.
Then Carville tries to explain away Hillary's position on NAFTA by making an unverified claim that she sort of opposed it when Bill was President:
MR. CARVILLE: I can--something I can attest to personally, and I, I have checked, she--in, in 1992, she was decidedly cool toward NAFTA. Came up with--we came out for NAFTA during the campaign. And I--the reason I remember it so well is it's one of the few times that I actually disagreed with, with Hillary Clinton on anything. I made it my business to try to agree with her on, on most things. Now, I don't know what happened in between 1992 and this campaign, but I do know that she was decidedly cool on, on the idea of us endorsing NAFTA during that campaign.
MR. MURPHY: But she has a theory about what happened...
MR. RUSSERT: But in 2004, she did say, "On balance, NAFTA has been good for New York and for America."
MR. MURPHY: Right.
MR. CARVILLE: I, I--again, I, I do know that--what it was in 1992. I can't attest other...
Bottomline: if she doesn't win big on Tuesday she won't win the nomination:
MR. RUSSERT: All right, let me show you, though, there's a map, and this is a map of the remaining 12 states, 611 delegates starting with this Saturday--next Saturday be Wyoming and in Mississippi, our calculation is, even if Senator Clinton wins Ohio and Texas say 52-48, she'd have to win 70 percent of the vote in each of those states in order to get enough delegates to surpass Obama among selected delegates. If she didn't, James Carville, I understand--I'm hearing you, that even if she was behind amongst elected delegates...
MR. CARVILLE: Right.
MR. RUSSERT: ...she could say "I finished strong.
MR. CARVILLE: Yeah. Of course.
MR. RUSSERT: I won Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, I should be the nominee."
MR. CARVILLE: And, and, and we're also forgetting they have to do something about Florida and Michigan. Now, you can say we, we discount the, the previous election, they have to go to like what they call a firehouse caucus or something. But part of her calculation would be that she's showing strength...
MR. SHRUM: Right.
MR. CARVILLE: ...and then she does--you got to put the--they're not going to not seat something from Florida and Michigan. It may not be based on the previous...
MR. RUSSERT: But what you're saying is that she would go to a convention and say, "I did not win elected delegates, I did not win as many states, primaries, caucuses as Obama, I did not win as much popular vote, but I should be the nominee because you should seat Michigan and Florida."
MR. CARVILLE: Well, well, well, we may not--wait, I mean, look...
MR. RUSSERT: What would happen inside that convention?
MR. CARVILLE: Well, first of all, I'd say now many Idahos does it take to count as California? I mean, come on, that's a little bit of a...
MS. MATALIN: Wait...
MR. SHRUM: That would be...
MR. CARVILLE: But it would be...
MR. MURPHY: That's the beauty of it.
MR. SHRUM: Someone from the Clinton campaign is a fraud.
MR. CARVILLE: What...
MR. SHRUM: Barack Obama is going to carry California if he's the nominee, he's going to carry New York, he's going to carry New Jersey.
MS. MATALIN: I...
MR. SHRUM:
That's not the issue. The issue here--the issue here is you cannot go into this convention and not have some moral claim to this nomination.
MS. MATALIN: I...
I think she can acquire one in the next few weeks, but she's got to acquire it by winning these two states, then winning Pennsylvania, and doing better.
MS. MATALIN: I agree.
MR. SHRUM: But she cannot in the end, "By the way, nominate me by giving me the delegates out of the Soviet-style primary in Michigan where we only had one person's name on the ballot."
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