Expect America to decline as a superpower in the years ahead, while China and India become more powerful. Who says so? The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC); America's intelligence community. They make this assessment in the The Global Trends 2005 report.
The world is shifting towards a multi-polar system with a less dominant US and a more powerful China and India, and a "historic" transfer of wealth from west to east, according to a new US intelligence report.
The Global Trends 2005 report, released by the director of national intelligence yesterday, says that while the US will remain the most powerful country in 2025, the rise of emerging powers and regional blocs will constrain its ability to "call the shots" across the world.
The National Intelligence Council analysis concluded the US would be ever more constricted by scientific advances in other countries, the expansion of irregular warfare by state and non-state actors, the proliferation of long-range precision weapons and the growing frequency of cyber warfare. "The multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."
The report said the international system prevailing since the second world war would be "unrecognisable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east, and the growing influence of non-state actors".
The NIC analysis warned such multi-polar systems have historically been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones. It added that while there were likely to be strategic rivalries over trade, investment, technological innovation and acquisition, it could not "rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries".
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