Who will Win the Iowa Caucus? Romney or Paul

We have a good idea what the results of the Iowa Caucus will be on January 3rd. In 2008, Real Clear Politics one week before the Caucus, had Mike Huckabee ahead in their average of polls with 33%. He won the election with 34.4 percent. In second place, Mitt Romney, had 25.2 percent. His RCP poll numbers had him at 27.3 on December 28th, 2007.

The average difference between the poll numbers and the actual result of the Caucus was 2.8 percent. Additionally, the correlation between the 12/28 poll and the January 4th 2008, Caucus was 96. Almost perfect. Using this number we can predict what the candidates will get on January 3rd:

Romney: 19.2 to 24.8
Paul: 19.7 to 25.3
Gingrich: 11.5 to 17.1
Perry: 9 to 14.6
Santorum: 7 to 12.6
Bachmann: 6.2 to 11.8
Huntsman: .5 to 6.1

This means either Romney or Paul will win. Even if Romney does not win he will essentially lock up the nomination by winning New Hampshire. No candidate can win the nomination without either winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Ron Paul is a fluke candidate who presents no threat to Romney even if he wins Iowa.