Sunday, January 1, 2012

2012 Presidential Election Prediction: Barack Obama Wins 51/49

One problem with this prediction. It assumes there will be no major third party candidate. This will be the year we could see a candidate other than a Democrat or Republican has a chance to win the White House:

Continuing my tradition of December election predictions (2007), let me note that I am not listening to any news about the 2012 Presidential election. I believe that Barack Obama will win the general election by a slim margin, e.g., 51/49 percent of the popular vote. Here are my reasons:
  • people are afraid of change and will favor an incumbent if one is available
  • Obama ended the Iraq war
  • Americans know in their hearts that Obama is not responsible for the stagnant economy
The last point is the one that may need elaboration. If the economy isn't growing, wouldn't voters be enthusiastic about replacing the President? My belief is that Americans are smart enough to recognize that one hard-working high-achieving person such as Obama cannot compensate for 313 million Americans who, on average, don't work all that hard and haven't achieved very much. Furthermore, as evidenced by the lack of politicians at all levels who are willing to admit that we can't pay for all of the stuff that we want, Americans aren't in the mood to confront reality.
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