Gingrich will win South Carolina, Romney the Nomination

Gingrich has made a dramatic rise in South Carolina and should win South Carolina. But it won't matter. Romney will move on to Florida and win there. There is a wide consensus that Gingrich would never be the nominated by Republicans. That would be suicidal. Gingrich is a protest vote. Voters in the primaries are not exactly thrilled with Romney. John McCain won by 3 points (33%) in 2008 in South Carolina. That is not much different from what Romney will get, about 30%. And after tonight the former Massachusetts Governor will be ahead of McCain's pace. The Republicans are stuck with Romney:

Mitt Romney has admitted he is "neck and neck" with Newt Gingrich to win the South Carolina primary, a critical contest that could shape the Republican challenge to Barack Obama.

The former Massachusetts governor has struggled in recent days with questions about his personal wealth and taxes, while Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, has seen a surge in his ratings after strong debate performances.

The pair are now locked in a two-way battle for the presidential nomination after Rick Perry, who was heading for a fifth-place finish in South Carolina, dropped out and threw his support to Gingrich. A Romney victory would see him remain favourite and place him in a powerful position heading into the Florida primary on 31 January.

Both men have been on the defensive this week as they try to persuade undecided voters that they are the candidate to beat Obama in the autumn.

Campaigning on Friday, Romney called on Gingrich to release a secret congressional report that saw him become the first speaker of the House of Representatives convicted of ethics violations in the 1990s.

Gingrich also faces allegations by one of his ex-wives, Marianne, that he asked for an open marriage so he could continue an affair with his current wife.

Gingrich has demanded Romney release his income tax returns, implying they may contain information that the Obama camp could use against the Republicans further along the line. Gingrich's own returns show that he earned $3.1m (£2m) in 2010 and paid tax of 31.5%.

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