Thursday, January 19, 2012

Romney and Gingrich are Tied in South Carolina

Apparently the last debate and negative press stories about Romney's business record lately have helped New Gingrich surge to a statistical tie in South Carolina. If the former Speaker of the House should win on Saturday things all of a sudden look muddled. But very few people think that Gingrich has a chance of winning the nomination; nor are Santorum or Paul, for that matter.

There is talk of a brokered convention. But that hasn't happened in decades. The likely scenario is a long, drawn out primary season in where Romney wins by reason of his superior establishment support and money. The possibility of someone other candidate jumping in is also highly unlikely. Nowadays you have to win primaries to win the nomination.

Revelations about Gingrich's personal life has the potential of stopping the spectacular momentum he is seeing now. But he would certainly continue to make life for Romney difficult in the weeks to come.


In a South Carolina ARG poll conducted January 11-12, Romney was leading Gingrich 29 percent to 25 percent. Gingrich's rise in the poll can in part be attributed to Tea Party supporters -- 28 percent backed Gingrich in the earlier poll, while 43 percent support him now.

Romney is clearly aware of the threat Gingrich poses. At a campaign stop in Charleston, South Carolina today, the former governor accused Gingrich of being in a "fantasy land" for saying he helped create jobs during the Reagan years.

In addition to Romney's attacks, Gingrich will have to overcome any doubts voters may have about his character, particularly since his second wife, Marianne Gingrich, charged in an interview with ABC News that the GOP presidential candidate wanted an "open marriage."

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